Few awards predictable

February 21, 2009

This Sunday at the Academy Awards another year of movies will be wrapped. While several awards this season — best picture, best director and actor in a leading role — are predictable, a few surprises may be in store for viewers and nominees alike.

Critics and guilds have been split in their favorites this year. A great guide for who will win the big five used to be the Golden Globe Awards, but with the show cancelled last year and some unanticipated winners this year, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association may not be on the same track as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Best picture

This award will more than likely go to “Slumdog Millionaire,” a film about a boy from the slums of Mumbai, who goes on the Hindi version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” Another nominee, “Milk,” won the New York Film Critics Circle award for best picture, and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” has been nominated for numerous awards.

Despite these contenders, “Slumdog Millionaire” has been sweeping the best picture category this season, winning best drama at the Golden Globes and receiving awards from the Directors, Producers and Screen Actors Guilds of America. “The Reader” was unexpectedly nominated in this category, and “Frost/Nixon” seems to have been tagged on as a tribute to director Ron Howard, a two-time Oscar winner.

Best actor in a leading role

Another predictable win is Sean Penn for his role as Harvey Milk in “Milk.” Penn is one man who has not split votes this season.

The only surprises in this category have been Clint Eastwood’s lack of an Oscar nod for his role in “Gran Torino” and Mickey Rourke’s “The Wrestler” win at the Golden Globes. The Academy, being more conservative in their choice of winners, will pick Penn, an Oscar favorite, over Rourke, a newcomer to the awards with a tabloid reputation.

Frank Langella from “Frost/Nixon,” Richard Jenkins from “The Visitor” and Brad Pitt from “Benjamin Button” round out the category, though have little chance in taking home the prize.

Best actress in a leading role

Best actress is where the winner of the Oscar is hard to predict. The most exciting win would be Kate Winslet, who was nominated for her leading role in “The Reader” and not “Revolutionary Road,” as many expected.

All awards season long, Winslet has been winning for her role in “The Reader,” yet she has won being nominated as a supporting role. Her only best actress win was at the Golden Globes for “Revolutionary Road,” where she won both that and best supporting actress for “The Reader.”

The road to winning an Oscar has been a long one for Winslet. This is her sixth nomination — and her fourth in a leading role — and it may be her year to win. But with all her losses in the past, could the Academy give the award to yet another favorite of theirs, Meryl Streep?

Streep has her 15th Oscar nomination with this year’s role in “Doubt,” making it her 12th leading lady nod. She has won in this category twice before. It could be time for the Academy to pick a new favorite, and Winslet warrants to be called one.

If the Academy really wants to surprise people, Anne Hathaway could be an underdog winner for her role in “Rachel Getting Married,” which has received ample media attention. Angelina Jolie’s maturing acting skills are once again overshadowed by some stronger performances by her peers. She is nominated for her role in Clint Eastwood’s “Changeling.”

Surprisingly not nominated in this category is Sally Hawkins for “Happy-Go-Lucky.” She has been a big winner this year at critics’ awards, as well as nabbing the best actress in a comedy or musical win at the Golden Globes.

Best director

Danny Boyle is sure to win for his work on “Slumdog Millionaire.” He has won favor from critics and guilds alike, and took the win at the Golden Globes.

David Fincher for “Benjamin Button” won the National Board of Review’s award, but has been out-won by Boyle elsewhere.

Gus Van Sant is nominated for “Milk” and Stephen Daldry for “The Reader,” but neither has made much of a mark this season.

Also nominated is Ron Howard for “Frost/Nixon.” Howard won two statues in 2001, one for best picture for “A Beautiful Mind,” and another for directing the film. This year, though he is no contest to Boyle’s successes.

Whether the 81st Academy Awards play out predictably or shock everyone can only be revealed Sunday, Feb. 22 as the Oscars are handed out live, starting at 7 p.m. Central on ABC, channel 7.

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